by John Glynn | Mar 3, 2017 | Market & Prices, Classic Porsche Blog
The last few months have seen a slowdown in air-cooled Porsche market activity. Long-time owners who have watched their hobby become a speculator playground may have welcomed the lull, but there’s no guarantee of its permanence.
A seasonal slowdown has always been the way of classic Porsche prices. As the cars get put away through September and October, so the market tends to hibernate, with fewer cars available and buyer attentions elsewhere as Thanksgiving, Christmas and myriad other distractions keep people at home through the snowy winter months (northern hemisphere folks).
As the weather improves and the evenings get lighter, the classic car season starts to pick up. By the time we get to Essen TechnoClassica in late March/early April, the market is getting back up to speed and we begin to see where the haves and have-nots might be found, as record prices for particular makes and models are set in a retail rather than auction context, in front of Europe’s largest single audience of devoted classic car fans. Once Essen has happened, we start to see price trends taking shape for the year ahead and that is always an interesting point.
Falling prices for classic Porsche
A number of recent Porsche insurance valuation customers have asked how the fall in Porsche prices is progressing. Looking at current selling price data and the supply levels for RHD impact bumper cars in particular, I see no sign of falling prices for ‘regular’ 911s. 964RS and Carrera RS have come back a bit from their ultimate highs, but that adjustment happened a while ago and has stabilised since. Demand for ordinary 911s has not melted away and with constrained supply, prices are stable for now.
A market slowdown just means fewer buyers are out there, but when the sale is not an urgent one, you just sit it out and wait for buyer numbers to increase. That is what’s happening now. There has been no obvious fall off in prices for SCs, 3.2 Carreras and 964 Coupes since this time last year.
As an impartial market observer rather than a Porsche dealer, I see no obvious signs of a serious downturn for air-cooled Porsche selling prices. The biggest risk to prices would be a sudden spike in owners wishing to cash in their chips, but I don’t get the feeling that this is imminent.
Long-Time Owners mothball their cars
No doubt many owners have stopped using their 911s in recent years. As one Californian owner of a number of hot rods said to me recently: “my local shop is so busy that I can’t even get a quick re-seal done. It’s good that they’re busy, but an indicator that finding a shop that is both good and relevant is tricky at the moment. I also have to say that I am distancing myself from the early Porsche crowd on the basis that it’s no longer the same demographic. There are plenty of old crowd like me, kind of hiding out now: still with the cars but not out there in the public eye so much.”
I know my friend is busy on exciting new work projects and has less time available to socialise, but I hear the same story from lots of people, not just in CA. I’m in the same boat and I don’t really mind not using my 911, as I have lots of other stuff to get done and twelve other cars to busy myself with.
Despite the palpable changes in demographic and available leisure time, there has been no huge flood of much-loved cars to the market. These 911s form part of the owners’ life stories, they embody a lifelong ambition to own a 911 and of course, they are making money parked up. If the market were to collapse, it would utimately cost the owners nothing. Their 911s are bought and paid for, and a fall in prices and change in the crowd might encourage them to start using the cars again. So they are not coming up for sale.
No big influx of cars and no changes to the external factors = no big drop in price.
2017 Price Predictions
The owner/enthusiast in me hopes that average examples through Europe and the USA being advertised for ridiculous prices will all remain unsold through 2017 and encourage overenthusiastic speculators out of the market. You may think this unlikely and I am inclined to agree. My inner price geek expects realistically priced examples with good history in good condition to continue to sell at the current level, if not a tiny bit more as this year gets started.
The advice to anyone considering an air-cooled Porsche purchase of the common-or-garden variety (SC, standard Carrera etc) who might be waiting to see if prices come down remains as it has been for several years: stop waiting. Buy a good solid car with history and start enjoying it ASAP. That advice has not changed in the decades I have been watching this market and it still holds true today.
by John Glynn | Mar 2, 2017 | Classic Porsche Blog, Market & Prices
My most recent used Porsche Market Report signposted rising demand for water-cooled Porsches: witness the 200-kilometre 996 GT3 RS that sold for £343,000 including premium at the recent RM Paris sale.
Good as this news may be for low-mileage GT3 RS owners, this trend is influenced in no small way by the rabid interest in low-volume, air-cooled collectables, as shown by the £1.8 million Porsche 993 GT2 at Sotheby’s in London last year and the £1.1 million Porsche 993 Turbo S Cabriolet at February’s RM Paris sale.
With prices now off the chart for real air-cooled rarities, prices for rarer water-cooled examples are being boosted with an air of expectation (not that a 200-km 996 GT3 RS is bad value at £340k if you have £5 million to spend on old cars). So while there is a growing respect for the rarer water-cooled models, high prices are linked to the staggering heights reached by air-cooled rarities at auction.
Many amongst Ferdinand’s core audience will disregard these one-off auction results as irrelevant to the market for old-school classic Porsche 911s built in greater numbers. However, where the money-no-object crowd places its bets has a direct effect on the mindset of anyone attempting to gauge where the price trends could take us during the next three to five years, assuming the external economic factors and influences remain broadly consistent.
Strong auction results do of course affect retail asking prices for 964RS, 911 Turbo and filter down to sales of the cheaper 911s. This trend then knocks on to other models, including the 944 Turbo and 968. Private sale asking prices are obviously linked quite closely to what dealers seem to be getting away with, so whatever happens in a showroom eventually makes its way to the classifieds.
Porsche Undesirables
Sadly for classic Porsche buyers, no truly undesirable models exist amongst the ranks of Stuttgart’s finest. Only those with a real taste of Volkswagen are anywhere close to the lower ranks of the pecking order – like the standard 924 and 912E (both of which I own/have owned myself, before you moan about elitism) – but everything else is now priced more than twice what it was a few years ago, such is the interest in classic Porsche product.
I still think the 912E is a great buy at the sort of level seen in RM Paris: £29,400 inc premium was a very good price for a collectable example, as many elements of these cars are unique. I wouldn’t want to be paying much more if buying for investment, but a low mileage minter will certainly cost at least that sort of price nowadays. These were very rare cars in their day and are not easy to find in top condition. That said, mine is destined for 911 power and some hot rod tweakery – I am not hunting for originality in my stable.
by John Glynn | Jun 26, 2016 | Market & Prices, Classic Porsche Blog
Britain has voted to leave the EU and the pound has taken the first of what is likely to be a series of nosedives, as the implications of the vote and the political fallout play through the stock markets.
Economic uncertainty is now a major talking point and consumer confidence has been hit, with a couple of Porsche dealers I spoke to on Friday reporting cancelled deals in the Brexit vote aftermath. Buying a £70k Porsche for weekends seems superfluous for some given the unknown future that British workers are facing, not to mention the enhanced investment oportunities that became available on the FTSE 100 after the vote, where shares in banks, airlines and UK housebuilders fell by up to 40%.
The strongest enquiries on Friday came from buyers with Euros to spend. Some dealers had stockpiled LHD Porsches ready to list, which may have been a canny play, most effective on rarer Porsche models with a high ticket price: GT3 RS 4.0s, Carrera GTs and the like. But cheaper classic Porsches also look slighty better value, with a £50k Porsche costing $68,520 or €61,919 on June 26 compared to $73,463 or €65,110 on June 22nd, the day before the UK referendum*.
(Update July 1: £50k has now slipped to $67,162/€60,496)
Porsche prices down 7% (for US buyers)
Falls of 7% in the dollar price or 5% in euros over four days may be just the start. At the time of the referendum, many dealers had still not corrected asking prices for softening classic car sentiment seen since the start of 2016, so that has yet to be implemented. Dealers now also face falling domestic demand from uncertain consumers, who will likely avoid big-ticket purchases until they know what the future of UK plc holds for them.
What could happen next? One scenario (and one that played out in the 2008 crash) is that, as the consequences of the referendum vote and EU exit begin to take hold and luxury car sales tail off, there will be casualties. Traders holding stock by means of a bank stocking loan or private investment will come under pressure should they be unable to make their repayment schedules. Repossessed stock would likely end up at auction, selling for knock-down prices, which will further undermine public confidence. This is not going to happen immediately, but the likelihood of recession grows with every day there is instability at the top of UK governance.
Second Referendum
Alternative scenarios currently doing the rounds include the possibility of a second referendum to head off the disintegration of the United Kingdom, as Scotland voted to stay in the EU and the winning margin for Leave was less than 2% on a turnout of less than 75%. A second referendum seems unlikely at the minute, but as the original referendum was not legally binding and an online petition called for a second vote captured 3 million signatures in less than three days, who knows what might happen next.
Another possibility is that it will all be fine, with the UK economy entering a period of prolonged expansion, jobs for all and revitalised public services. However likely one feels this may be, it’s not going to happen next week, so the short term outlook is less positive. Prices will feel some effect.
*source: fxtop.com
by John Glynn | Jun 20, 2016 | Market & Prices, Porsche News
I had an interesting conversation with a well connected dealer friend a few days ago regarding the UK market for RHD Porsche 991 GT3 RS, which suggested that the days of six-figure markups for the latest 911 RS were over and done.
A nice RS had just arrived in stock and was offered to a number of prospects at well below the average market price. Some of his would-be buyers replied with claims of cars being offered behind closed doors for much less than the price my friend offered. Evidence went backwards and forwards until a much lower price was eventually agreed as the RS seller was keen to move on. The seller still cleared the best part of £45k profit out of the deal after paying the dealer’s fixed-price commission.
Average Market Prices for Porsche 991 GT3 RS
Average selling prices for 991 GT3 RS are not easy to calculate without access to accurate transaction data, but the average asking price is pretty straightforward. The premier classified ads site currently has 22 991 GT3 RS models on offer in the UK with prices from £195,000 to £289,995 (22 is not exactly what one might call rare). Average asking price for these cars is a heady £246,000.
This data does not tell the whole story. Amongst these 22 911s are cars with far more than delivery mileage – over 3,000 miles in some cases – and one zero-mileage LHD example. Stripping these cars out and confining data to just RHD cars with fewer than 400 miles on the clock reduces our sample to just twelve cars. Average asking price for these cars jumps to £252,270.
Cost New versus Average Price for 991 GT3 RS
A brand new Porsche 991 GT3 RS bought with no options will set you back £130,296 cost new from Porsche Cars Great Britain, but no one buys a standard RS. A sensible options package of decent paint (£1800), leather trim to the 918 seats (£2k), LED lights (£2k), Front Axle Lift (£2k), PCCB ceramic brakes (£6k), Sport Chrono (£1k) and PCM with Sound Package Plus and phone prep (approx £3k) adds the best part of £20k, which takes the cost new to £149,755.
This £150k list price is for a brand new car with 10 miles or less on delivery, built to your spec and you are the first owner in the log book. The only snag is you cannot order one new: production has been allocated to an oversubscribed list. However, it does indicate what the manufacturer believes their car should be priced at, given the cost to build and their standard margin.
Taking this £150k list price against today’s average UK asking price of £252,270, we see a premium of more than £100k for a car that’s already had one or more owners and may come with up to 400 miles on the clock. If you think that sounds pretty extreme, there is more than one story of a slot on the 991 GT3 RS waiting list being sold for as much as £200k over list at the height of the fever.
Porsche 991 GT3 RS Price Premiums Shrinking
I’ve not driven a 991 GT3 or an RS – these cars simply do not interest me as a driver – but I have looked at plenty up close. The overall impression is of a car that can get away with a £150k price tag, but not a hundred thousand pounds more than that. Lack of supply when the cars were newly-announced sent prices soaring, but now that the RS is two year-old technology and the demand from collectors has likely been satisfied, the low supply premiums are shrinking.
With prices of £190-195k rumoured for cars sold under the radar, that puts the premium closer to £40k for a delivery mileage, one-owner 991 GT3 RS. No doubt some will insist these prices are not happening, but I do trust my source.
Porsche is not building any more 991 GT3 RSs as far as I know, so the chances of these cars – even 10k-mile examples – selling for less than list price in the near future is unlikely, but exactly where over-list premiums will settle is uncertain for now. Will they drop much below £40k? That is entirely possible: premiums usually keep coming down until there is a sudden injection of demand, or supply shrinks as the market soaks up everything available.
Common drivers behind increased demand is a screamingly low price (exchange rate changes for overseas RHD buyers) or a sudden influx of liquidity to the buyer pool, such as city bonuses, pension payouts, capital gains tax breaks or similar. It’s unlikely that a vote against Brexit in this Thursday’s referendum would cause RS prices circa £260k to suddenly look sensible if people are paying less than £200k elsewhere, but there would likely be a lift in demand for sensibly-priced desirable cars like the 991 GT3 RS if economic uncertainty was eased.
Given this prospect, sensible dealers might be considering a reprice right about now. £200k is still £50k profit on list for a well-specced example. Perhaps sellers are not paying attention to the rest of the market, or banking on a big hit to Sterling exchange rates on Thursday. That’s a pretty big gamble if there are only ten buyers out there and they all do deals tomorrow and Wednesday.
by John Glynn | Mar 10, 2016 | Classic Porsche Blog, Market & Prices
Tomorrow is the Gooding & Co auction sale in Amelia Island, where noted Porsche collector, Jerry Seinfeld, is selling a number of his cars. Eighteen soon-to-be ex-Seinfeld cars including sixteen Porsche models will cross the auction block in this huge sale, which has just twenty-nine Porsches entered in total.
Talking to an American collector friend, this batch of cars is estimated to be circa ten percent of the complete Seinfeld collection. The famous comedian buys and sells many cars – I’ve driven some ex-Seinfeld machinery myself – but most previous sales have been well and truly under the radar. Dealers entrusted with Jerry’s cars who have tried to cash in on the Seinfeld kudos as part of their pitch have allegedly not had an easy ride afterwards, so it is no great surprise that an auction was chosen to dispose of this sizeable tranche, or that Gooding got the commission: the famous Amelia Island sale is the premier East Coast auction in the US and comes just as the market starts to gather pace following the lulls of winter. Many record Porsche prices have been achieved by Gooding at this sale.
Seinfeld shares Porsche Excitement
“The reason I wanted to bid these cars farewell in this way is really just to see the look of excitement on the faces of the next owners, who I know will be out of their minds with joy that they are going to get to experience them,” says Jerry. “Each one of these cars is a pinnacle of mechanical culture to me. Many are the best examples that exist in the world. I’ve loved being entrusted with their care, and I’m proud of the level to which we have brought each and every one of these wonderful machines. Honestly, if I had unlimited time, space and attention span I would never sell one of them.”
Situated in the north-east corner of Florida just inside the Georgia border, the almost perfectly named Fernandina Beach is finely dressed in Southern Victorian architecture and lined with more than thirteen miles of beaches. It’s a great escape for the rich and famous, but there will be no escaping market forces when twenty of Seinfeld’s own Porsche cars cross the podium from 11am tomorrow.
Classic Porsche Prices Market Trend
Prices at the very top end of the classic Porsche market have tailed off in recent months – at least for the cars you see at open sale. Sellers claim that many deals are done behind closed doors for stronger prices than seen in public, but even in these secret deals for the very best cars, buyers are applying pressure. Twenty percent off a $5 million car is a sizeable discount, so if the market is showing obvious softness, and both parties know it, there’s a poker game happening.
Doing eighteen poker deals behind closed doors, most likely through middle men, would be a long and expensive pain in the arse for Herr Seinfeld. Sending these cars to auction, with ten weeks of everywhere promotion, and a glitzy end-of-sale in prospect for Jerry, looking at the faces of buyers set to be “out of their minds with joy” is a reasonable recipe for respite from a high-end Porsche market that has consistently failed to deliver record-breaking prices since the middle of last year.
Affordable Classic Porsche prices remain steady
Further down the price range, our Porsche Valuations market price tracker is seeing continued health in the market for cheaper classic Porsches. Collectable RHD water-cooled 911s are in fine form, with low mileage Porsche 996 GT3s and GT3 RS models selling quickly. Good RHD Porsche 930s are still good sellers, as are RHD 911 3.2 G50 Carreras (especially the Club Sport) and 964 Carrera 2 models in top condition.
Seinfeld’s big hitters – the 550 Spyder, 718 RSK, and 917/30 – will fetch what they fetch and add to the existing market trend info, but more interesting will be the market for the Carrera GT prototype. Bought by Seinfeld directly from Porsche, and disabled before purchase from any possibility of being driven, this handmade CGT prototype has never been previously offered to the market. For some, it may be a potential jewel in the crown of a water-cooled Porsche collection, for others it is a pricey handmade paperweight. If any car were to illustrate prevailing price sentiment amongst serious Porsche collectors, then this should be it.
My favourites in the big Seinfeld sell-off are the Volkswagens: a 1964 Volkswagen Camper with less than 20k miles in simply perfect condition and a beautiful 1960 VW Beetle in original, unrestored condition, with just 15,500 miles on the clock. Of all these cars for sale, why sell this one? Assuming America turns out for Amelia, a top estimate of $55k on the Beetle could prove significantly behind the market. I would be keeping this car: it would be the last car I’d sell. Which means that Seinfeld has even nicer Beetles. Lucky man.
All images copyright and courtesy of Gooding & Company. 550 Photo by Mathieu Heurtault. Other photos by Brian Henniker.
by John Glynn | Jan 21, 2016 | Market & Prices, Porsche News
Official UK Porsche dealer, Porsche Centre Bolton has lost a court battle with the aggrieved would-be buyer of a Porsche 911 GT3 RS 4.0 who was gazumped by the dealership following confirmation of order.
Portrayed in a slightly frantic local press report as a duped and dispossessed pensioner (the buyer may not be entirely delighted about this), local enthusiast and classic car restorer Kevin Hughes (67) put a £10,000 deposit down on a 997 GT3 RS 4.0 back in March 2011 and was emailed by the sales department to say “I can confirm that you will get the first one from Porsche Centre Bolton if we get one, which I am very confident that we will”.
Some time later, OPC Bolton told Mr Hughes that they had actually not received any 4-litres, and returned his deposit. When Mr Hughes discovered that they had in fact been allocated a 4-litre RS but had secretly sold it to someone else, the shit hit the fan and Hughes commenced proceedings against OPC Bolton’s owners, Pendragon Sabre Ltd.
The deposit was paid in March 2011, but the case has only just come to court. This tells you that the legal costs are not insignificant. The court ruled that OPC Bolton had lied, found in favour of Hughes and awarded him £35,000 in damages, which was said to be the current value of a RHD 4-litre minus the original cost new. They also awarded costs, so Pendragon will have to pay Hughes’ legal bills as well as its own.
“Plain as a pikestaff” is how the judge described the binding contract between Mr Hughes and OPC Bolton. By paying a deposit up front, Kevin Hughes had done more than just expressed a passing interest and the sales team had promised him the first car in writing. The secret sale behind Hughes’ back of the one car which the dealership received was therefore a clear breach of contract, according to the judge.
Given that RHD 4-litres are fetching far more than £170k to collectors, I think Pendragon has got away lightly. Thanks to a decade valuing cars for a living and now running my UK Porsche insurance valuations service, I get called in to legal disputes as an expert every once in a while. Hughes’ legal team should have googled a values expert for this one: their client might be a hundred grand better off now.
An old friend of mine works at OPC Bolton. I’m sure there are two sides to the story – maybe one day I will hear the rival viewpoint – but it seems to have looked pretty cut and dried to the judge.
